RICHT vs. BOBO

Two days prior to the 2006 Georgia-Georgia Tech game, Coach Richt told Mike Bobo that he was turning over the play calling to the young offensive assistant - a change Richt said he had thought about making "for a while."  

Soon afterwards, some of the Bulldog Nation were already questioning the move.

Now, three-and-a-half years later, many Bulldog backers feel Bobo's play calling is a major reason for the football team's recent downward spiral.

Even The Smartest Bulldog online trivia game is getting in on the discussion, asking the other day in its Daily Question, "Who should be calling Georgia's offensive plays?"  At the time I played the game, only 13 percent of those that answered believed Bobo should be running the offense while "Coach Richt" was selected by an overwhelming four times Bobo's amount.

Over the last couple years, I'm often asked the exact same question and, somewhat unsure of my answer, usually don't have a response. 

I decided to conduct a statistical comparison between Richt and Bobo as far as the production of their offenses, which I realize (and let me emphasize)doesn't necessarily equate to each coach's play-calling prowess. 

This past Saturday at Colorado was Bobo's 46th game calling the plays.  I thought a fair comparison with his tenure would be Richt's final 46 games as the Bulldogs' play-caller, which began with the 2003 Alabama contest until the Tech game of 2006.

Admittedly, I was rather surprised with the results I found.

Apparently, Bobo's offenses have averaged more yards per play - both rushing and passing - than Richt's, while scoring 15 percent more touchdowns and settling for less field goals:

*Off. TDs (Rush/Pass): RICHT- 137 (67/70); BOBO- 158 (76/82)
*Field Goals: RICHT- 75 of 96; BOBO- 65 of 82
*Yards per Off. Play (Run/Pass): RICHT- 5.66 (4.01/7.73); BOBO- 5.96 (4.42/7.89)

With Bobo calling the plays, the Bulldogs have committed less turnovers and been sacked less frequently, while the number of times settling to punt is near equal, but still in Bobo's favor:

*Turnovers (Int/Fum Lost): RICHT- 80 (37/43); BOBO- 73 (41/32)
*Pct. of Pass Plays resulting in Sack: RICHT- 6.26; BOBO- 4.42
*Punts: RICHT- 204, BOBO- 200

Bobo's offenses have been more efficient converting on both third down and when third and fourth down are combined.  And, although Richt's offenses made more trips into the opposition's red zone, Bobo's is much more productive, scoring more points per red zone visit.  The average time of possession is nearly identical: 

*3rd Down Eff.: RICHT- 39.9%; BOBO- 42.0%
*3rd/4th Down Eff.: RICHT- 41.5%; BOBO- 42.8%
*RZ Visits/Points Per Visit: RICHT- 185/4.68; BOBO- 160/5.24
*Time of Possession: RICHT-29:47; BOBO- 29:38

I often mention YPP (yards per point) and how an offensive YPP is a good indicator of how hard a team had to work to score its points.  Although a team's defense and special teams unit certainly play a role in the same team's offensive YPP, the ratio is an excellent representation of an offense's overall efficiency.  The lower the offensive YPP, the better:

RICHT: 13.53
BOBO: 12.62

An argument could be made that my analysis is like comparing apples to oranges; the Richt and Bobo offenses faced different defenses and armed with different talent, including the extraordinary Knowshon Moreno and Matt Stafford while primarily Bobo was calling the plays.  

However, in my opinion, the opposing defenses faced by and offensive talent present for Georgia during the two 46-game spans was presumably at or near the same level.  Remember, Richt's period includes David Greene's senior season and most of his junior year, and D.J. Shockley's senior campaign of 2005 - perhaps, the best season ever [statistically] by a Georgia quarterback.

Nevertheless, perhaps the main criterion for an offense's production should be the end result - whether the game was won or lost.  This is the one measurement where there was a decided advantage - by 3 games overall, 3 1/2 games in conference - when Richt was calling the plays:    

RICHT: 35-11 overall, 21-9 SEC
BOBO: 32-14 overall, 16-11 SEC

Notwithstanding, an argument could definitely be made that this difference in results was hardly the fault of the Bulldogs' recent offenses.

I'm not necessarily arguing Mike Bobo should continue to run the offense;  however, the numbers don't lie.  It is apparent Georgia's offensive production while Bobo has been calling the plays appears to have been just fine, at least comparatively speaking.

Alas, after conducting my analysis, I still remain undecided on who I believe should be calling the Bulldogs' plays.  Part of me now feels that perhaps Bobo has been used as a scapegoat for the entire team's demise.

On the other hand, it's almost understandable why 35 percent of players at The Smartest Bulldog answered the Daily Question not selecting Bobo or Richt, but "NEITHER."