If Murray's NOT a "Gamer," what Dawg was?

Georgia's loss to MSU in the Outback Bowl dropped
Aaron Murray's "Big Game" record to 0 and 9.

"Aaron Murray makes me nervous," a friend of mine said the other day.  He then went further, stating that of all the Georgia quarterbacks that started for at least two seasons, the last one that made him more nervous – the one he trusted the least when he lined up under center for the Bulldogs – was, in his words, "well... probably Greg Talley."  (By the way, I think two seasons was his benchmark so Joe Cox couldn't be considered.)

For those of you who remember Greg Talley from the late-1980s/early-1990s, that was a strong statement, and presumably a slight exaggeration, by my friend.

"Murray is not a gamer," my friend continued, "he hasn't won a single big game."

His opinion is certainly nothing new; Murray's production against formidable competition has often been criticized.  There has been much discussion on how Murray lights it up against the cupcake opposition, but crumbles in the big games.

But, this leads me to ask, what exactly is a "big game"?  And, after defining it, does Murray's performances in such contests differ much from the Bulldog signal callers that came before him?

So, after some thought and discussion, my friend and I finally decided on our opinion of what exactly is a BIG GAME: any bowl opponent, an SEC title foe, a team ranked in the AP's top 15 entering the game, and/or a meeting where the Bulldogs entered as underdogs.

Under such conditions, I discovered Georgia had played in NINE "big games" in 2010 and 2011 combined, all under the direction of Murray: South Carolina (underdog), Arkansas (top 15), Miss. State (underdog), Auburn (top 15, underdog), and Central Florida (bowl) in 2010, and Boise State (top 15, underdog), South Carolina (top 15, underdog), LSU (SECC, top 15, underdog), and Michigan State (bowl, top 15) in 2011.

And, under these conditions, my friend was correct in his assessment – Murray has indeed yet to win a big game, going 0-9 thus far in his career, while he is 16-2 against other opponents.  Perhaps as telling, Murray has a remarkable passer rating of 161.20 versus the weaker competition, but 131.16, or a decrease of nearly 20 percent, in big games:

BIG GAMES: 131.16 rating (154 of 275, 56%, 2125 yards, 14 TD, 9 int)

OTHERS:      161.20 rating (447 of 745, 60%, 6198 yards, 59 TD, 22 int)

Based on my friend's comments, I decided to go back when the Bulldogs first began to really open up their passing game, which started ironically right after Talley, beginning with Eric Zeier in 1991.  Of the six Georgia quarterbacks from then to the present, who were considered starters for at least two seasons, I discovered their career starting records in "big games":

Of Zeier's five "big" wins at UGA,
FOUR resulted as a freshman in '91.

MATTHEW STAFFORD, 7-3 (.700)

DAVID GREENE, 11-6 (.647)

*MIKE BOBO, 4-4 (.500)

QUINCY CARTER, 4-6 (.400)

*ERIC ZEIER, 5-9-1 (.367)

AARON MURRAY, 0-9 (.000)

*Considered are two big games of Zeier's (Alabama and Clemson in '91) and one of Bobo (Auburn in '96), where the two quarterbacks didn't actually start the games; however, in each case, they played for nearly the entire contest.

I then felt it would be interesting to figure the other five Bulldogs' passer ratings in only big games compared to Murray's 131.16 big-game rating, and was somewhat shocked to see our current signal caller go from the bottom of a list to the top:

AARON MURRAY, 131.16

MIKE BOBO, 129.96

MATTHEW STAFFORD, 129.56

DAVID GREENE, 125.36

ERIC ZEIER, 121.28

QUINCY CARTER, 116.50

So, I thought, our beloved Murray is 0-9 in big games, yet he has the best Bulldog big-game passer rating over the last 20+ years???  Maybe our boy has gotten a bad rap; perhaps Murray's winless record in big games over the past two seasons has been little fault of his own, but rather that of his teammates and coaches.

On the contrary, the typical football stat geek, like myself, will tell you that passer ratings nowadays are a tad inflated from those of yesteryear; Murray's rating shouldn't be compared to those from a decade or so ago, especially Zeier's from the early-90s.  Also, what does a quarterback's passer rating exactly show besides how "efficient" one is at passing?  And, some would argue it really isn't much indicative of that...

However, in comparing quarterbacks' passing performances against big-game foes and non-big game opposition, what might be indicative of big-game production is any drop-off in passing efficiency –  the six quarterbacks' passer-rating decrease in non-big games to big games:

MATTHEW STAFFORD, -3.9 percent

MIKE BOBO, -10.7 percent

DAVID GREENE, -13.3 percent

QUINCY CARTER, -13.7 percent

ERIC ZEIER, -17.1 percent

AARON MURRAY, -18.6 percent

If you're confused by all of this statistical mumbo jumbo, I'm sure you're not alone.  Even I got a little lost just now reading over what I had typed.  Regardless, what's clear from the third set of rankings is that Stafford, for example, was a steady passing performer, whether playing in big games or against weaker competition.  Throw in the fact that he won 70 percent of his big games – the first set of rankings – and there is little doubt Stafford was a "gamer" during his Bulldog career.  Based on this analysis, the same could be said for Greene, and even Bobo to some degree.

As far as Murray, so far, not so much.

The junior quarterback's 0-9 record in big games is obviously not his entire fault.  Some of the blame can certainly fall on the others surrounding him.  However, what's revealing is Murray's drop in performance when facing tougher competition; he can be mostly to blame for this unfortunate trend.

Perhaps fortunately for the Bulldogs and Murray, their next "big game" might not come until the sixth game of the year at South Carolina, and maybe not until a possible early-December date in the Georgia Dome.  Unfortunately for Aaron Murray, until he finally wins a big game, there are some in the Bulldog Nation, like my friend, who will continue to group him with those former quarterbacks, like Greg Talley, who may have made some of us "nervous."

But say what you will about Talley, although he was the loser of five, he did win TWO "big games" as a Bulldog...