tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4004306236917286956.post3606544128858636004..comments2024-01-02T05:14:48.181-05:00Comments on About Them Dawgs! Blawg: Just Average ATSPatrick Garbinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01356915340772134104noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4004306236917286956.post-11555670115218094742010-07-20T12:56:28.398-04:002010-07-20T12:56:28.398-04:00There is a problem with this logic. The article sa...There is a problem with this logic. The article says that Bobby Johnson only MET expectations. He did not overachieve or underachieve. But that interpretation fails to take into account the fact that a coach SETS expectations. More is expected from Alabama under Saban than for Alabama under Shula because Saban has raised expectations through the roof. By the same token, Bobby Johnson gradually raised expectations of what Vandy could do...by beating teams like Georgia, Auburn, and Tennessee.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4004306236917286956.post-24265048613223516652010-07-19T07:13:51.652-04:002010-07-19T07:13:51.652-04:00Anon 10:52,
The other two ATS wins for the Dawgs d...Anon 10:52,<br />The other two ATS wins for the Dawgs during that time was LSU in 2008 and Arkansas last season.<br />--<br />PatrickPatrick Garbinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01356915340772134104noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4004306236917286956.post-12086559877935996002010-07-19T07:12:46.614-04:002010-07-19T07:12:46.614-04:00Anon 1:56 and Dawgfan17,
Thanks for reading and I...Anon 1:56 and Dawgfan17,<br /><br />Thanks for reading and I appreciate the comments. You guys are correct by saying it’s the goal of some sportsbooks to have half the money on each side of some of their games on the board (notice I said “some” – 50/50 or “splitting the action” is somewhat of a myth in sports gambling); that’s why I tried to be careful by saying the Bulldogs should win by “around” (instead of “exactly” or “strictly”) 29 points, according to the line setters and movers. <br /><br />Nevertheless, my point was that I believe a team’s ATS record is a good indicator of over-/underachievement. And if you look at the teams with an excellent/poor ATS record over time, it seemingly is a good barometer of measurement. <br /><br />Look at the seven schools I mentioned (i.e., UConn, Rutgers, VA Tech, etc.). I’m sure you would agree that for the past eight seasons, these teams are excellent examples of those that, for the most part, overachieved, strained their potential, and/or played above what was expected.<br /><br />I think the opposite can be said for Miss. State and other teams with poor ATS records from 2002-2009: Michigan State, Illinois, Washington, and UNLV, to name a few.<br /><br />And, as far as the 4-14 ATS stretch for Georgia I mentioned… During that time, one could argue the Bulldogs were one of the most underachieving, disappointing teams in all of college football.<br /><br />It seems to me ATS records can be used to determine underachievement or overachievement, but that’s just one man’s opinion…<br />--<br />PatrickPatrick Garbinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01356915340772134104noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4004306236917286956.post-6760569678595701562010-07-19T00:59:58.763-04:002010-07-19T00:59:58.763-04:00Anon beat me too it. Spreads are only about gettin...Anon beat me too it. Spreads are only about getting the public to bet equally on either side. Besides what is the difference in how good a team does against expectations if they beat a team by 28 points instead of 30 points. Is either a better performance than the other?Dawgfan17noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4004306236917286956.post-22267317215457390022010-07-18T10:52:08.512-04:002010-07-18T10:52:08.512-04:00The 18-game bad ATS stretch you mention, I can thi...The 18-game bad ATS stretch you mention, I can think of only 2 games GA covered--Michigan State in bowl game and Vandy last year. What were other 2?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4004306236917286956.post-88748111309461719282010-07-18T01:56:36.447-04:002010-07-18T01:56:36.447-04:00Actually you're wrong about one thing. In your...Actually you're wrong about one thing. In your Georgia example you say, "According to the line setters, the betting public, and the tons of money that has been wagered to move the line to where it closes, the Bulldogs should win by around 29 points."<br /><br />Vegas doesn't try to predict margin of victory and doesn't care about the score or the teams playing. They only care about money. Their goal is to set a line and move a line to have 50% of money on one side and 50% on the other. Therefore, they can take their 10% "juice", make money, and move on. <br /><br />Therefore, you can't use ATS statistics to determine underachievement or overachievement. <br /><br />Spreads are about $ and nothing else.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4004306236917286956.post-2085043515482082402010-07-17T19:14:43.019-04:002010-07-17T19:14:43.019-04:00Long term ATS standing can also be determined by t...Long term ATS standing can also be determined by the number of people betting on the games. Fewer people gambling should lead to a worse spread number (vs reality) at least in theory.BGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04262524271704603632noreply@blogger.com